COP31 Live · Plain briefing

No draft text yet on any of the six big questions.

Each question below shows where Belém left things and what would count as a step forward.Each track shows the Paris and Belém baselines, the draft status and the tests we apply to the next text.

When drafts usually land

FRI 13 NOVFirst cleaned-up drafts from the co-facilitators
SAT 14 NOVTechnical talks usually close; unfinished points go to ministers
WED 18 NOVPresidency drafts the main deal
FRI 20 NOVScheduled last day; one closing session approves every decision

This is the usual pattern for a COP, not a published timetable. Dates follow the UNFCCC programme.

The six questions

Once official text exists, each gets a verdict: further than Belém last year, the same, or backwards.

PARIS 2015Developed country Parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with both mitigation and adaptation (Article 9, paragraph 1).

BELÉM 2025Launched a two-year work programme on finance and “took note” of the Baku to Belém roadmap on reaching $1.3tn by 2035.

ANTALYA, NOWNo draft yet. First ones usually appear around 13 Nov.

verifiedParis and Belém baselines checked against their sources.

▲ Step forward if: a clear scope and timetable for the work programme.
▼ Step back if: a procedural fight that stops it starting.

See the texts and who’s pushing what (Expert) →

Why any of this matters

Paris set a limit of 1.5 °C of warming. Here is where the world is, and where plans take it by 2100.

Measured warming:1.55°C, likely the first calendar year above 1.5°CWMOverified
If every pledge is kept:2.6°CUNEPverified
On today’s policies:Could reach 2.8°CUNEPverified

Warming above pre-industrial levels, latest figure on record for each line.

Today and tomorrow

TODAY · TUE 10 NOVEnergy and transportNegotiators split into small working groups, one per topic, and start working through draft text line by line.Contact groups and informal consultations begin first readings. Co-facilitators collect textual proposals from Parties.cited

TOMORROW · WED 11 NOVZero waste · Leaders’ Summit, day 1Heads of government arrive and give speeches. They set the political tone and sometimes announce money. They do not negotiate text.World Leaders Climate Action Summit: national statements. Technical negotiations continue in parallel.cited

All 12 days →

New to COP? Three answers.

What it isBodies in session

The yearly meeting where nearly every country negotiates what to do about climate change. This is the 31st. The letters stand for Conference of the Parties, and a “party” is a country that signed the UN climate treaty.COP 31 (UNFCCC), CMP 21 (Kyoto Protocol) and CMA 8 (Paris Agreement), with the 65th sessions of the subsidiary bodies, SBSTA and SBI.

How decisions get madeDecision rule

Nothing passes unless every country accepts it. One objection can block a deal, so the wording is fought over line by line for two weeks.Consensus. The draft rules of procedure have been applied without rule 42 on voting since 1995, so there is no fallback vote.

What comes outSplit presidency

Written decisions. They set goals, rules and deadlines for countries. They do not force any country to act, which is why the exact verbs matter so much.Türkiye (Murat Kurum) holds the COP presidency and the voluntary Action Agenda. Australia (Chris Bowen) is President of Negotiations and controls the text process.

Words you’ll hear this week

NDC

A country’s own climate plan and emissions target. Renewed every five years.Nationally determined contribution under Article 4. The current round sets 2035 targets.

Brackets

Square brackets around words in a draft mean countries have not agreed on them.Unagreed text. Nested or alternative brackets mark competing options.

Adaptation

Preparing for climate impacts: sea walls, heat plans, drought-proof crops.Article 7. Tracked through the Global Goal on Adaptation and its 59 indicators.

COP

The yearly UN climate summit. Short for Conference of the Parties.Supreme body of the UNFCCC (1992). Meets annually with the CMP and CMA.

Full glossary →