[
  {
    "id": "res-pauw-2022",
    "authors": "Pauw et al.",
    "year": 2022,
    "journal": "Climate Policy",
    "title": "Post-2025 climate finance target: how much more and how much better?",
    "doi": "10.1080/14693062.2022.2114985",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2114985",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "finance"
    ],
    "plain": "A bigger finance target alone may not work. The authors suggest a separate target for grants, which could raise accountability, trust and transparency.",
    "expert": "Identifies five priority elements for the post-2025 target (relation to Article 2.1(c), adaptation-mitigation balance, financial instruments, mobilising private finance, 'new and additional' finance) and suggests setting a sub-target for grants.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1080-14693062-2022-2114985",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-callahan-mankin-2025",
    "authors": "Callahan & Mankin",
    "year": 2025,
    "journal": "Nature",
    "title": "Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability",
    "doi": "10.1038/s41586-025-08751-3",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08751-3",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "finance"
    ],
    "plain": "The authors argue that science can now link economic losses from extreme heat to the emissions of individual fossil fuel companies.",
    "expert": "End-to-end attribution links fossil fuel producers' scope 1 and 3 emissions to specific heat-related economic losses. For Chevron, emissions very likely caused between US $791 billion and $3.6 trillion in heat-related losses over the period 1991-2020.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1038-s41586-025-08751-3",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-berrang-ford-2021",
    "authors": "Berrang-Ford et al.",
    "year": 2021,
    "journal": "Nature Climate Change",
    "title": "A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change",
    "doi": "10.1038/s41558-021-01170-y",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01170-y",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "adaptation"
    ],
    "plain": "A review of 1,682 articles found that the overall extent of adaptation to climate change is low, and most efforts are local and small-step rather than transformative. Evidence that these efforts are reducing risks remains limited.",
    "expert": "A systematic global stocktake screened 48,316 documents and coded 1,682 empirical articles: adaptation is low in extent, largely local and incremental rather than transformative, and evidence that responses reduce observed or projected risk remains limited.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1038-s41558-021-01170-y",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-vicedo-cabrera-2021",
    "authors": "Vicedo-Cabrera et al.",
    "year": 2021,
    "journal": "Nature Climate Change",
    "title": "The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change",
    "doi": "10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "adaptation"
    ],
    "plain": "About one in three heat deaths in the places studied can be blamed on human-caused warming.",
    "expert": "732 locations, 43 countries, 1991–2018: 37% of warm-season heat deaths attributable.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1038-s41558-021-01058-x",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-thomas-2021",
    "authors": "Thomas et al.",
    "year": 2021,
    "journal": "Regional Environmental Change",
    "title": "Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation",
    "doi": "10.1007/s10113-021-01808-9",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01808-9",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "adaptation"
    ],
    "plain": "Money and weak institutions are the most common reasons adaptation stalls.",
    "expert": "Financial and governance constraints dominate; evidence on hard limits remains thin.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1007-s10113-021-01808-9",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-stechemesser-2024",
    "authors": "Stechemesser et al.",
    "year": 2024,
    "journal": "Science",
    "title": "Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades",
    "doi": "10.1126/science.adl6547",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl6547",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "mitigation"
    ],
    "plain": "Researchers looked back at 1500 climate policies across 41 countries and found 63 that led to large cuts in emissions. They say price-based policies play an important role in well-designed policy mixes.",
    "expert": "Ex post evaluation of 1500 policies (1998 to 2022, 41 countries) using a machine learning-based extension of difference-in-differences identified 63 successful interventions with total emission reductions between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion metric tonnes CO2.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1126-science-adl6547",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-forster-2025",
    "authors": "Forster et al.",
    "year": 2025,
    "journal": "Earth System Science Data",
    "title": "Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024",
    "doi": "10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "mitigation"
    ],
    "plain": "Human-caused warming is estimated at 1.36 °C in 2024, and it is rising at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record.",
    "expert": "Human-induced warming is increasing at 0.27 [0.2-0.4] °C per decade over 2015-2024, driven by greenhouse gas emissions at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr-1 (2014-2023) and reduced aerosol cooling; the 2024 observed best estimate is 1.52 °C versus 1.36 °C human-caused.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-5194-essd-17-2641-2025",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-schleussner-2024",
    "authors": "Schleussner et al.",
    "year": 2024,
    "journal": "Nature",
    "title": "Overconfidence in climate overshoot",
    "doi": "10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "mitigation"
    ],
    "plain": "Temporarily passing a warming limit and then cooling back down is not something we can count on, because strong feedbacks in the Earth system could undercut the cooling. Only rapid near-term emission cuts are effective in reducing climate risks.",
    "expert": "Declining global temperatures after overshoot can limit long-term risks (including sea-level rise and cryosphere changes) compared with mere stabilization, but reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks; the authors identify a geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes, which technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1038-s41586-024-08020-9",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-pai-2021",
    "authors": "Pai et al.",
    "year": 2021,
    "journal": "One Earth",
    "title": "Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally",
    "doi": "10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.005",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.005",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "just-transition"
    ],
    "plain": "Meeting the well-below 2°C goal would increase energy jobs worldwide, from 18 million today to 26 million by 2050, compared with 21 million under current policies. Fossil fuel extraction jobs would decline, but gains in solar and wind jobs would make up for the losses.",
    "expert": "Combining job intensities across 11 energy technologies and five job categories in 50 countries with an integrated assessment model under three shared socioeconomic pathways, direct energy jobs reach 26 million by 2050 under a WB2C scenario versus 21 million under current policy; solar and wind gains, particularly in manufacturing (7.7 million in 2050), compensate for fossil extraction losses.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1016-j-oneear-2021-06-005",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-welsby-2021",
    "authors": "Welsby et al.",
    "year": 2021,
    "journal": "Nature",
    "title": "Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world",
    "doi": "10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "fossil-roadmap"
    ],
    "plain": "For an even chance of 1.5°C, nearly 60% of oil and gas and 90% of coal must stay in the ground by 2050.",
    "expert": "By 2050, nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, using a global energy systems model.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1038-s41586-021-03821-8",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-trout-2022",
    "authors": "Trout et al.",
    "year": 2022,
    "journal": "Environmental Research Letters",
    "title": "Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5 °C",
    "doi": "10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "fossil-roadmap"
    ],
    "plain": "Existing and under-construction oil and gas fields and coal mines would commit 936 Gt CO2. Staying within a 1.5 °C carbon budget (50% probability) means leaving almost 40% of developed reserves of fossil fuels unextracted.",
    "expert": "Central estimate of committed CO2 emissions from fossil fuel-producing infrastructure (existing and under-construction oil and gas fields and coal mines) is 936 Gt CO2: 47% coal, 35% oil, 18% gas. Developed reserves substantially exceed the 1.5 °C carbon budget (50% probability), implying almost 40% must be left unextracted; robust to a Monte Carlo analysis.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1088-1748-9326-ac6228",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-green-2024",
    "authors": "Green et al.",
    "year": 2024,
    "journal": "Science (Policy Forum)",
    "title": "No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need",
    "doi": "10.1126/science.adn6533",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn6533",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "fossil-roadmap"
    ],
    "plain": "The authors argue that a social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to help achieve global climate goals.",
    "expert": "The abstract states only that a social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1126-science-adn6533",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-way-2022",
    "authors": "Way et al.",
    "year": 2022,
    "journal": "Joule",
    "title": "Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition",
    "doi": "10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "electrification"
    ],
    "plain": "Compared with continuing with a fossil fuel-based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely save many trillions of dollars, even before counting climate damages or other benefits of climate policy.",
    "expert": "Probabilistic cost forecasts for solar, wind, batteries and electrolyzers, using methods statistically validated by backtesting on more than 50 technologies, indicate that a rapid green energy transition will likely yield net savings of many trillions of dollars.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1016-j-joule-2022-08-009",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-nijsse-2023",
    "authors": "Nijsse et al.",
    "year": 2023,
    "journal": "Nature Communications",
    "title": "The momentum of the solar energy transition",
    "doi": "10.1038/s41467-023-41971-7",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41971-7",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "electrification"
    ],
    "plain": "Solar power may already have passed a point of no return, after which it gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets without any further climate policies. Open questions remain over grid stability, finance in underdeveloped economies, supply chains and political resistance.",
    "expert": "Data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting suggests a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed, with solar gradually dominating electricity markets without further climate policies; uncertainties include grid stability, finance, supply chain capacity and political resistance, and policies resolving these barriers may be more effective than price instruments.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1038-s41467-023-41971-7",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  },
  {
    "id": "res-luderer-2021",
    "authors": "Luderer et al.",
    "year": 2021,
    "journal": "Nature Energy",
    "title": "Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios",
    "doi": "10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z",
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z",
    "type": "peer-reviewed",
    "track_ids": [
      "electrification"
    ],
    "plain": "Further progress in solar and wind technology together with carbon pricing could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could supply 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times current levels.",
    "expert": "Further solar and wind progress plus carbon pricing could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels; in a 1.5 °C scenario with limited bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times current levels and higher than previous IPCC scenarios.",
    "note": null,
    "date_verified": "2026-11-10",
    "retraction_status": "none-found",
    "source_id": "doi-10-1038-s41560-021-00937-z",
    "accessed": "2026-11-10",
    "verified": true
  }
]